THE ICLTD REPORTER

The President’s Report

Since the last edition of the ICLTD Reporter, the International Center for Law, Trade and Diplomacy has been developing along several exciting lines. First, as a result of a generous donation from the Law Offices of Taufiq Choudhury, the organization was able to complete its software upgrade, which has enabled it to add information to its website at a more rapid rate. The ICLTD website Links Page now links to almost 160 other websites on various topics ranging from International Law to Africa. Students have advised me that the Links Page has been very useful to them as a significant research resource.

Second, the ICLTD has made significant progress in developing its Africa Outreach Program. Model materials for high-school age students on African history are near completion. In addition, in January, 1999, Ian Anderson, Frances Arricale and I met with William Thompson, President of the Board of Education of the New York City Public Schools, to taut Africa Outreach and the information services that the ICLTD can provide to students and teachers. Although our efforts to establish constructive links with the public schools has been a slow process, I am confident that it will pay off in positioning the ICLTD into becoming a major source for information and programs for the public school sector.

Third, progress has also been made in developing a volunteer research program for law students. In Fall, 1998, the ICLTD worked closely with Pace University Law student, Ellen Javor, on a paper she is developing for the organization on a comparison of Canadian and American trade and human rights policies. Louise Valiquette, an ICLTD advisor and adjunct professor of International Trade Law at Pace Law School, has sponsored Ms. Javor’s work which is expected to provide a basis for additional programs on Canadian-American policy as part of the ICLTD’s CAPS (Canadian-American Policy Series) initiative.

Since November 1998, six students from area law schools have contacted the ICLTD office about sponsoring their research in conjunction with an independent study program. Promoting the ICLTD’s ability to interact with students on the grassroots level has been its website, which has served as a readily available source of information about the organization. The number of hits on the ICLTD website has markedly increased since August, 1998, but still remains insufficient to attract commercial sponsorship. Upgraded computer software has also enabled the organization to publish brochures that are briefer, easier to read and cheaper to disseminate than its more formal fund raising materials. Finally, not to be overlooked is the success the organization has had in cultivating constructive relationships with law students who have requested information and advice from the organization. Developing a vital volunteer research program will be critical to the ICLTD’s effort to expand its information resources for students, educators and other members of the general public.

Finally, a word must be said concerning the ICLTD’s year-end fund raising effort. I am pleased to say that several thousand dollars was raised putting the organization in the black. Special thanks in this regard should go to Mr. Taufiq Choudhury who contributed $500 and Ms. Joanne Jacobson who contributed $3,500. To these contributors and to the other friends of the organization who made contributions, I would like to express my sincerest thanks. I must add, however, that the effort to raise funds on a broader and more sustained basis continues, and remains critical to the organization’s ability to implement its far-reaching programs.

If you are interested in making a donation to the ICLTD, please direct it to the Executive Director/ICLTD, Inc. Please make all checks payable to ICLTD, Inc.

The Summer Research Internship for Law Students on Public International Law and Human Rights will be co-sponsored by the ICLTD in Summer 1999 with the New York County Lawyers’ Association. Because of the ICLTD’s enhanced data resources, this Summer is expected to be particularly exciting for student participants. First, the ICLTD’s website Links Page should markedly enhance the scope of student research in many areas. Second, the ICLTD should have available to students on-line its extensive INFODAT database. Students will be able access INFODAT through the ICLTD’s website using a password key. Third, for the first time, students will also have access to on-line research reports on a wide variety of topics developed by participants in past summer sessions and by ICLTD volunteers. Finally, we expect that students will have more internship opportunities with organizations doing vital international work.

If any reader is interested in participating in the Summer Program, please contact the ICLTD Office or Tomas Ryan de Heredia, Committee on Foreign and International Law, New York County Lawyers’ Association at (212) 666-3500.

Shift in Grant Seeking Strategy

One of the ICLTD’s ongoing quests is to find grant support. As noted in previous ICLTD Reporters, one problem is that there simply has not been enough time spent on determining appropriate grant-making partners. A corollary problem has been that the ICLTD has not been able to attract volunteers to assist it with grant making research. Again, more time needs to be spent on actively engaging the business schools and other similar organization where persons could possibly be found interested in fund-raising. While successfully implementing its projects will go far toward developing confidence in the ICLTD among potential donors, without sufficient funding, the organization will not be able to implement its educational projects as aggressively as it would like.

One approach to contend with this problem, is to develop grant proposals that are not as program oriented but more project oriented. For example, to help define the potential of the ICLTD’s GRISIRA (Global Reach Information System on International Risk Assessment) project it could be worthwhile engaging in an extensive survey of the small business community to ascertain its information needs regarding international investing in emerging markets. Potential funders may be more interested in supporting this kind of project because its scope is more limited and the information developed from it could have wider implications for organizations providing counsel to businesses beyond the ICLTD. A similar tact could be taken with the Africa Outreach Program. Instead of seeking financial support for the program per se, the ICLTD could seek grant money to develop a conference on the state of world affairs education, which could have larger impact on the education field. Still another tact is to approach grant-makers for operating funds not based on any one project but on the basis of the potential for the ICLTD to provide significant information services to the public. I welcome the comments of readers regarding the most effective way for the ICLTD to obtain grant support.

Papers on the Internet

Several papers can now be found on the ICLTD’s website. Director Ian Anderson has written a critique on the American justice system, which provides a thought provoking comparison between the American and European human rights systems. Lisa Small, who participated in the 1996 NYCLA Summer Internship Program, has provided the ICLTD use of her piece on the law and policy considerations of laser weapons. Finally, included on the website are ICLTD materials pertinent to the Africa Outreach Program – An Abstract History of Africa and Definitions Companion.

The ICLTD has moved its administrative office from 155 West 70^th Street, 4F, New York, N.Y. 10023 to 180 Riverside Blvd., 19C, New York, New York 10069. All mail sent to the 155 West 70^th Street address shall be forwarded to the ICLTD’s new location. Until further notice, however, ICLTD literature will continue to reference the 155 West 70^th Street address.

Robert Goodman

August, 1998 Meeting

The Minutes of the August 12, 1998 ICLTD Board of Directors Meeting is available for review. The Minutes of the March 3, 1998 Meeting were approved. In addition, Joseph Hayden and Frances Arricale were elected members of the ICLTD’s Advisory Council. Mr. Hayden is a lawyer and computer consultant who has helped develop the ICLTD’s website. Ms. Arricale is Assistant Vice-President of New York Life Insurance Company and has been significantly involved in developing the organization’s Africa Outreach Program.

The ICLTD welcomes the interest of readers, especially advisors, in becoming members of the organization’s Board of Directors. Please forward your nomination to the Executive Director.

The Next ICLTD Board of Directors meeting has been tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, March 17, 1999, at 6:00 p.m., at the Offices of Gersten, Savage, Kaplowitz & Fredericks, LLP, 9^th Floor, 101 East 52^nd Street (Tel. 212-752-9700)

COMMENTARY

Iraq Redux III:

Since the last ICLTD Reporter (July, 1998), the international community has suffered through three crises over weapons inspections and witnessed a U.S. bombing of Iraq. The result has been that the inspection regime is over, and a new containment regime is in the offing. The U.S. and Britain have consistently pressed the UN Security Council to abandon the effort to ease sanctions against Iraq and instead focus on creating the conditions necessary to oust Saddam Hussein. U.S. policy has been resisted by Russia, China and France who are more concerned about containing American power than containing Iraq. Ironically, their policy, which is to press for an easing of sanctions and a redefinition of the monitoring program, has only served to provoke American unilateralism. The discussion among U.S. policy makers is now no longer how to build a coalition against Saddam in the Security Council, but how to organize covert operations to encourage internal dissension and rebellion against the regime.

Analysts have cautioned that because of geographic and geopolitical peculiarities, it is unlikely that the U.S. would be able to use opposition groups as a vanguard force for resisting the regime. (See Foreign Affairs, (January/February 1999, "The Rollback Fantasy") At the same time, from a diplomatic standpoint, Iraq is increasingly becoming more isolated. The Arab League, for example, refused to take up Iraq’s grievances about continued sanctions at the highest level at its recent meeting in January 1999. Egypt, an important cultural and political center in the Arab world, moreover, has also criticized Saddam’s regime, holding it responsible for the suffering of the Iraqi people, an unusual public statement to be issued by one Arab country against another. Clearly, an important dimension of U.S. policy, in addition to military vigilance and the maintenance of the no-fly zones over Northern and Southern Iraq, should be to encourage the regime’s continued isolation.

Along these lines, one effort that has been suggested is to investigate war crimes committed by Saddam Hussein during the Persian Gulf War and afterwards. To the extent the Iraqi dictator may be depriving Iraqi civilians of basic food and medical supplies under the UN’s Oil for Food Program, as part of his propaganda effort against the sanctions regime, there may be material to craft claims that could be investigated and prosecuted in the recently established international criminal court. (The ICLTD notes that in the last legislative session, Senator Arlen Specter sponsored "The Saddam Hussein War Crimes Prosecution Bill" (S.Con. Res.78), which called for the establishment of an investigatory commission and UN tribunal to prosecute Saddam Hussein and other Iraqi leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity).

With respect to America’s position in the Security Council, efforts should be made to link up certain aspects of its bilateral relations with Russia, China and France with positive movement toward an acceptable containment regime. As discussed previously, these three powers have been positioning themselves on the basis of a fundamentally anti-American policy to reign in U.S. unilaterialism. To increase the costs of resisting containment without creating unnecessary tension in U.S. bilateral relations with these three nations will be a challenge to policy makers. At the same time, the U.S. has been lax in investing resources in the Gulf states for the development of a regional security regime that could reinforce Iraqi isolation.

Latin America in Financial Crisis:

The world financial crisis has entered a new phase with Brazil’s currency crisis. Observing the inability of the Brazilian government to pass important reforms to lower its internal debt and increase the tax base, investors have dumped Brazil’s dollar (the Real) causing the government to expend foreign exchange to preserve its currency’s value. In an effort to avert an Asia-style meltdown, the International Monetary Fund announced a $41.5 billion rescue package in November 1998. As of January 1999, the press reported difficulties in the passage of legislation that would hike taxes on financial transactions and cut ballooning costs associated with maintaining the social security system. One problem that is also confronting the government is resistance by certain states like Mina Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul to make payments on their debts to the federal government. In response to this internal challenge, the World Bank announced that it would temporarily cut off loan facilities to both states.

In an attempt to stave off recession, the government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso allowed the Real, to drop 40% of its value in January, 1999, but this did not attract back investors as expected. Finally, it was reported on February 5, 1999 that the government renewed its pledge to maintain a low inflation, austerity policy. The IMF agreed to make a second installment on the $41.5 billion loan facility in exchange for a commitment to keep inflation under 10% and internal debt below 45.6% of GDP.

Whether the low inflation policy will be successful is completely unclear, but pressure has been mounting for a reevaluation of anti-inflation measures in the world currency crisis as a whole. Specifically, some critics, e.g. Jeffrey Sachs of Harvard University and Paul Krugman of MIT have criticized the effort to stabilize exchange rates at the expense of growth. They have continuously challenged the IMF for promoting a policy that they believe will inevitably lead Brazil into a recession. Brazil’s devaluation earlier this year represented a change in course from the low inflation policy advocated by the international lending institutions. Brazilians, however, gave thumbs down to allowing the Real to weaken any further, fearing the hyperinflation the country experienced in the 1980’s.

For readers interesting in international economic issues and the spread of the East Asian currency crisis, one recommended article is Paul Kugman’s recent piece in Foreign Affairs, January/February, 1999, "Depression Economics Returns," in which he describes the tension among certain policy goals, i.e. controlling interest rates, maintaining price stability, and protecting currency convertibility. Unable to attain all these objectives at once, countries like Brazil have been confronted with an unpalatable choice between pursuing a policy that will raise inflation rates and a policy that will discourage growth and precipitate recession.

Whether or not a firewall can successfully be built around Brazil is anyone’s guess, but the movement among policy makers is clearly in the direction of regulating, at least to a limited extent, the flow of international capital to prevent runs on local currencies and the collapse of financial systems. On this issue, Professor Krugman again offers useful comment: the regulation of international capital should not be viewed in black and white terms since there are distinctions that should be made between states that can absorb the risks associated with less regulated capital flows and those that are vulnerable to capital flight and financial panic.

Africa:

Recent developments in the Africa region suggest two conflicting trends. The first is a movement toward democracy. The second is a movement toward regional war.

Nigeria

The first trend is exemplified by the dramatic changes going on in Nigeria, until recently a political basket case under the late military dictator, Sani Abacha. Since the death of Abacha over the Summer and the rise to power of General Abdulsalam Abubakar, democracy advocates have become more optimistic. In December 1998, local and state elections took place and were deemed, for the most part, fair by international observers. Presidential elections are due to take place later this month. For observers, one critical issue that the elections will have to address is the regional tension between the North and the South of the country. The North is dominated by the Hausa and Fulani tribes and has been the origin of many of the country’s recent military rulers. The South, dominated by the Yaruba and Igbo peoples, and the location of much of the country’s oil resources is said to have been politically disenfranchised and economically neglected. Of the parties vying in the upcoming elections, the All Peoples Party is aligned with the North, while the Peoples Democratic Party is aligned with the South. The Yaruba, principally, support the Alliance for Democracy. Local analysts advocate a power shift from the North to the South to maintain national cohesion, but regionalism could win in the end inaugurating a period of renewed tensions within the country. So far, a general consensus has been emerging to make Nigeria’s next President a Southerner. (See NYT, 2/15/99, "Contenders to Lead Nigeria Face Off in a Bitter Primary")

The Congo War

While the world awaits the outcome of the upcoming Nigerian elections, concern has been expressed about the current trend toward regional war fueled by an unprecedented degree of cross-border interventions. The most dangerous example of this trend is the ongoing Congo War involving Rwanda, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola. The Congo War represents a breakdown in a consensus that has existed since the founding of the Organization for African Unity (OAU) in the 1960’s, that African nations should not intervene in one another’s internal affairs.

At the root of the Congo War is the conflict between the Tutsi and Hutu peoples in Central Africa, which culminated in the Tutsi Genocide of 1994. Uganda and principally Rwanda have intervened to secure their borders against Hutu insurgents. Zimbabwe, ironically, has intervened ostensibly to preserve the principal of non-intervention. (Critics suggest that two motivating factors behind Zimbabwe’s intervention was to divert attention from the increasing frustration with the rule of President Robert Mugabe and to raise the country’s standing as a regional power).

Efforts to promote peace through regional organizations like the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the OAU have failed.

Eritrea and Ethiopia

Still another conflict that threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa is that between Eritrea and Ethiopia over a border region of little economic value. Again, regional/international efforts to promote peace have failed. From the standpoint of U.S. foreign policy, the conflict upsets the anti-Sudanese front that the U.S. has promoted. (The U.S. has supported the rebels in the South Sudan against the fundamentalist Islamic government that is said to be a major supporter of international terrorism). This front has been based on close U.S. ties with Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda and cooperation among these three states. Worthy of note is that the border conflict has escalated markedly as a result of arms purchases by both countries from Russia and others.

For observers of the so-called African Renaissance (whose principal feature is impressive growth rates in the sub-Saharan region, especially, in Uganda, Eritrea Ethiopia and Rwanda), the breakdown in Africa’s dispute resolution mechanism portends trouble for future economic development, and democracy. Significantly, South Africa, the region’s economic and military power, has failed to fill what has emerged as a major power vacuum in the region. An example of this is South Africa’s inability through the SADC regional organization to prevent Zimbabwe’s intervention in the Congo War (See New York Times 8/20/98) and to promote a mediation of the dispute; see failed meetings in South Africa reported in the New York Times 8/23/98; see also Economist 11/14/98 "The Region’s Blundering Elephant").

Although the U.S. has taken steps to promote a peaceful resolution of both the Congo and Ethiopian conflicts, its influence is limited. The failure of South Africa to step into the breach as the region’s major peace enforcer has exacerbated the situation. South Africa’s reluctance to engage in a military intervention may possibly have its origin in its highly controversial intervention in Losotho last year. Clearly, what is necessary is that the U.S. take a more aggressive approach to promoting South African military and political influence. At the same time, the road to a more constructive relationship will be a long one. As it stands, South Africa is very suspicious of America’s motives in the region. U.S. support for the White Minority Government during the apartheid era has significantly compromised closer diplomatic relations with the current government of Nelson Mandela.

Senate Bill 778, the African Growth and Opportunity Act," failed to pass as part of a larger package of trade legislation in the 105^th Congress. At the same time, the bill, whose House version was passed in March, 1998, and which enjoyed substantial bipartisan support, has been reintroduced in the 106^th Congress by Representative Philip Crane under HR 434.

A new law on satellite technology switches licensing back to the State Department from the Commerce Department (NewYorkTimes 1/22/99). The State Department Rules implementing the new law come into effect in March, 1999. The legislation comes on the heals of a major Congressional investigation into alleged leaks of technical information to Chinese military authorities from Hughes Electronics Corporation and Loral Space and Communications. The Cox investigation criticized the Clinton Administration for under-emphasizing national security concerns in high technology trade.

The bill consolidating The Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and the U.S. Information Agency with the State Department (HR 1757, "The Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998") was vetoed by President Clinton on October 21, 1998. In the President’s veto message to Congress, he indicated that the legislation would be reintroduced as part of the Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act of 1999.

The Freedom from Religious Persecution Act of 1998 became law (PL 105-292) on November 12, 1998. The law establishes an Office of Religious Persecution Monitoring, to provide for the imposition of sanctions against countries engaged in a pattern of religious persecution.

Other bills that died at the end of the last legislative session include HR 967 "The Clergy Freedom Bill" that prohibits the use of certain funds to defray travel expenses of and the issuance of certain visas to Chinese officials. The measure was passed by the House on November 6, 1998, but was not reported out of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations by the end of the 105^th Congress’s legislative session, and will likely be reintroduced in the 106^th Congress. HR 2195 "Slave Labor Products Bill" mandates monitoring of goods imported into the U.S. that may have been produced by slave labor. The bill was passed by the House but was not reported out of the Senate Committee on Finance by the end of the legislative session of the 105^th Congress.

If any reader has an interest in following a particular legislative topic pertinent to American foreign policy or trade, please contact the ICLTD office for follow up.

Issues to Follow in the News

Kosovo:

The Rambouillet Peace Conference on Kosovo began earlier this month with the objective of imposing a peace settlement as between the Serb and the Albanian Kosovars. Recent news reports cast doubt on the willingness of the parties to come to an agreement without international pressure and NATO threats. The delegations from a diplomatic standpoint are unstable. The Serb delegation has no authority to enter into any agreement without the agreement of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is not attending. The Albanian delegation is split between advocates of a secure autonomy and independence.

The Pinochet Case:

The case against Augusto Pinochet, Chile’s former military dictator, was concluded before Britain’s House of Lords. The last decision, which held that Pinochet could not enjoy head of state immunity under British law was voided by a Committee of Lords in December, 1998 (New York Times 12/18/98). The basis for overturning the first decision was Lord Hoffman’s undisclosed association with Amnesty International, which was invited to participate in the first hearing. The next decision is expected in the next few weeks.

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NATO Expansion:

The ICLTD followed with interest the non-debate on NATO expansion. Now, as the 50^th Anniversary of the Alliance approaches, the objectives of the organization remain murky. NATO's legal basis for intervening in Kosovo, for example, i.e. humanitarian intervention, is a novel theory that could open up new avenues for intervention in the future, even where national security interests are not at stake. It has been said that Secretary of State Madeline Albright has advocated NATO as an organization to defend western values (New York Times 10/18/99), but this focus has been resisted by the Europeans who want to continue to define NATO as a regional security organization. At the center of the conflict between U.S. and European visions of the alliance is the issue whether NATO should be globalized to deal with the proliferation and use of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Critics argue that this will take NATO out of area, a situation resisted by the Europeans.

 The Euro:

The advent of the Euro (the common European currency) in January 1999, is expected to transform the European economic landscape. The most immediate impact of the common currency is likely to limit price differences between identical goods sold in different parts of Europe, and to reduce the administrative costs associated with currency exchanges. Whether the Euro leads to a major economic expansion in Europe and begins to challenge the hegemony of the U.S. dollar as the investor’s currency of choice is as yet entirely unclear. Ultimately, the strength of the Euro will depend on whether European governments will be able to keep their debt to Gross Domestic Product ratios stable (i.e. low debt as a percentage of the total value of goods and services produced in the economy). This may be no mean feat since Left of Center Governments are now dominating the political landscape in Germany and France with the mandate to focus less on inflation fighting than on job creation.

The opinions set forth above represent those of the commentator and not ICLTD, Inc. Please send your comments or observations to the Executive Director for publication.

The Final Word

Through its website and database development, the ICLTD is fast becoming an increasingly important resource for the public on world affairs issues. That this development has been slow in coming, is not unanticipated. Pioneering new ways of promoting world affairs education entails not only meeting needs, but also changing attitudes. In the late 20^th Century, the public remains ambivalent about the foreign policy making process and America’s role in world affairs. Efforts to promote grass-roots education have met with uneven success, while policy makers continue to be uncomfortable with the increasing role public opinion and Congress is playing in shaping foreign policy.

The ICLTD has advocated a controlled process of engagement whereby non-experts are being encouraged to form their own opinions and engage in a lively debate of ideas. One important vehicle for doing this is the ICLTD Reporter, itself, which provides not only the means of disseminating information and ideas, but can be an effective sounding board for individuals interested in world issues. Another vehicle is the ICLTD’s website that will be further developed into a medium for dialogue with the computer literate public. By linking the ICLTD’s INFODAT database to its website, a new resource will open up to students, teachers and other members of the general public interested in learning about trends in international politics and economics. The third vehicle is through events programming. Because emphasis has not as yet been placed on this effort its role in the ICLTD’s growth strategy should be addressed.

Educational events are the bread and butter of many world affairs organizations. Bar Association committees, world affairs and foreign policy associations expend substantial resources on the effort to find speakers and organize events. Many events organizations have whole staffs of people developing programs on specific topics and marketing those programs to the public. Although the ICLTD plans to develop events in the long term, in the short term, there is concern that such programming would swallow up the organization’s more long-term and unique educational programs that involve developing written and media materials, and implementing school programs. To address this challenge, the ICLTD plans to solicit the assistance of advisors and interns interested principally in developing events. Another approach that is under review is for the ICLTD to find organizations with which it can share responsibility for organizing events and developing useful educational materials.

As always, the input of readers is appreciated on this and other topics. If you have a comment or idea relevant to events programming or would be interested in developing such programs for the ICLTD, please contact the ICLTD office.

Robert I. Goodman

President

If your organization would like a research intern for Summer, 1999, Please contact the ICLTD Office, or Tomas Ryan de Heredia, Committee on Foreign and International Law, New York County Lawyers’ Association, Tel. (212) 666-3500.